Post-Draft analysis:
I will first take a look at the overall flow of the draft and some trends that stand out and then I will look at each person’s draft including what should have been done with hindsight. I will be giving some opinions of the players and if you don’t like them, too bad. In general I will not be looking at bye week problems as it is too much of a pain in the ass.
The first two rounds ran mirror images of each other with each drafter getting one RB and one QB each. In my opinion, that allowed a lot of RB talent to fall which may end up hurting the people who got caught up in later RB runs. Speaking of runs, the draft was dominated by runs, which hurt the people who got caught in the middle taking a lesser talent at a position out of fear that all the players at that level.
After four rounds every player except for Nick had two RBs, a WR, and a QB (Nick and two WRs and one RB). This tells me that the people who took a QB at the end of the second (me, SteveO and Steve C) could have waited at least another round to get the same QB as no one grabbed a second until a few rounds later which started yet another run. Top TEs fell much further than I expected and two TEs I have in the top 5 (Heap and Winslow) ended up being picked as backups and will probably outscore WRs in the same area and give more flex options to the owners.
I will probably come back to more overall draft observations as I look at each team individually. I will start with the 1st pick and go to the 8th, except I will look at my own draft last as I will be able to give more insight into why I made the picks. I will analyze the 1st 8-10 picks for each team and then any others which stand out and then grade the overall team.
Pick 1: Steve C.
1.01- LT2: not really much needs to be said about this one. Having LT starts a team with such an advantage that in a way you only need to not screw up to make the playoffs. Obviously, the goal is to win and not just make the playoffs so some risks need to be made.
2.08- Philip Rivers: A safe pick for a QB1, I like the pick in a vacuum, but as was mentioned before, no more QBs were taken until the 5th, as all the other owners had a QB already. I think you may have been able to take him and Cutler on the 4/5 turn and had another RB or WR upgrade.
3.01- Travis Henry: IMO a no brainer pick. As I will explain later, one of my biggest regrets is not picking him right before. He doesn’t catch as much as our league would like, but he will get almost every carry on a run heavy team. The RB 1/2 punch is probably the best in the league.
4.08/5.01 Cutler/ Javon Walker: I group them together as
their fantasy fate is linked. You took
6.08- Randy Moss: Another hit or miss WR. After
7.01: Edge: I don’t like him in ARZ at all. With your top 2 RBs I don’t mind this pick because he will get all the carries and points as an RB3. I think you should have gone with Benson here but I guess if you go big with WR, taking a safer RB makes sense.
8.08- Baltimore: A little early for a defense, but will give an advantage over the other teams.
9.01- Terry Glenn: I don’t know why but I don’t like him this year. A safer WR to go with two more risky picks I like though.
Rest of draft notes: I don’t like Dallas Clark that early at
all especially with other better TEs still on board. I also don’t like Darrell
Jackson this year, but the Branch pick makes up for it and gives you options at
WR. I love the
Best Picks: Henry,
Worst Picks: James, Glenn, Dallas
Possible Lineup:
QB: Rivers, Cutler, Losman Grade: B
RB: LT, Henry, James,
WR:
TE:
K: Graham
DEF:
D: Edwards, Tatupu, Dawkins, Brooks, Milloy, Chavous
Possible Keepers:
Cutler, Losman,
Pick 3: SteveO
1.03: Larry Johnson- It’s nice having the draft after he signed. He’s the only weapon in KC and is a beast. Could easily end as the #1 RB.
2.06: Jon Kitna- I know you heard about it at the draft but I’m going to continue to say this was a bad pick. I think there are 5 top QBs this year (Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, Bulger) and this pick just seemed to be made out of fear of losing a QB. I think Kitna will have a great year but I think your team would look a lot better with Henry/Kitna then Kitna/Alexander. I have Kitna 7th on my list after McNabb, but I think you could have waited here.
3.03: Alexander- I like this pick as he is one of the last top RBs left on the board and this helps lessen the blow of the Kitna pick since you start LJ/Alexander at RB every week. I think Alexander will dip a little this year but I think you took him at the right spot.
4.06 Evans: I like Evans this year, but I have a feeling he would have lasted until the 5th. A possibility would have been to grab Fitzgerald here and hope for Evans in the 5th. His value is slightly lower in our league because of the 1.25 points per reception and he is more of a big play receiver.
5.03: Colston- I have a feeling he will drop down his numbers this year since he will be seeing more double coverage as the #1 wideout. He’s a decent pick here but I think I like Driver and A. Johnson more. You have a good but unstable WR 1-2 combo.
6.06: Big Ben- I am still pissed at you over this pick. I was ready to take him with the next pick. Once again you got caught at the end of a QB run, but you made the right choice in taking him with this pick as he was in the same tier if not higher than the other QBs taken during the run.
7.03: Benson- I bet you are glad I reached for Peterson for keeper purposes because you got to fill up your starting RBs with another one who will get all the carries for his team when healthy. As long as Benson doesn’t get hurt he should be a steal for where you got him.
8.06/9.03: Coles/ C. Johnson: Here you shored up your WR corps and I like what you did. Coles will be consistent but not spectacular while Johnson has the ability to score 10TDs this year.
Rest of Draft: Welker, Marshall, and Porter are solid bye
week fills for WR. You have no depth at RB which will really hurt and you
drafted 5 QBs. At least you got rid of Croyle and got
Best Picks: Big Ben, Benson
Worst Picks: Kitna, Croyle
Possible Starting Lineup:
QB: Kitna, Ben,
RB: LJ, Alexander, Benson Grade: B+
WR: Evans, Colston, Coles, C. Johnson, Welker, Marshall, Porter Grade: B, Depth: A
TE: Gonzo Grade: B+
K: Keading
DEF:
D: Z. Thomas, Briggs, Witherspoon, Sims, S. Jones, Barber
Possible Keepers:
Big Ben, Benson, C. Johnson
Pick 4: Peitz
1.04: Gore- The fourth pick is a tough one, but Gore is a good a pick as any. The others I would look at here were Manning, Parker, and Westbrook. The hand worries me a little but it seems like he will be back to full speed by the first week.
2.05: Bulger- You were caught in the QB run as well but I like this pick as I have Bulger in the top 5 QBs this year and he will always put up numbers.
3.04:
4.05: McGahee- Obviously I hate him as a Steeler fan, but it was a great pick here, It makes taking a WR in the 3rd look better as I think McGahee can be close in production to the other RBs who went before him(Rudi and Maroney)
5.04: Driver- I have always liked Driver and he put up big points for me last year. He’s battling injuries right now, and with a consistent WR already on your team I think you should have gone with A. Johnson and his upside.
6.05: Leinart- Another good QB pick in the middle of the run. AZ can’t run the ball and he has Boldin and Fitz so you can’t go wrong here. You have a top QB combo.
7.04: Burress- I had him as the top WR on my board at the time but I don’t like this pick. It wasn’t a WR run and RB3s were coming off the board fast. You have a very solid start to the draft with the only question mark being Gore’s health, I really would have gone with T. Jones or Lynch here as an RB3. There’s a small chance Burress would have fell to you.
8.05: McAlister- Although he is a good value here, I go to my last point again. If you took a RB with the last pick you could have had a WR close to Burress here. You’re team would have looked better with Jones/Coles then Burress/Deuce.
9.04/10.05: Da Bears/
Rest of Draft: As I mentioned, you needed to change from safe picks to risky picks or vise-versa. You had a very good first six rounds with players who you know what you are getting from them. In the later rounds you should have taken some people with risk. How many games will Joe Horn play for you? None unless there are injuries. You should have gone with someone like Bobby Wade or Williamson from MIN in case one of them steps up. The only real risky players you took were Holmes and Russell and I think he is for keeper reasons. I really like J. Jones that late as an RB4.
I like your DBs, but your DL isn’t so good. I just don’t like taking actual D linemen in our format. I think with your picks, you will have a good record and make the playoffs, but you might be missing that late push for the championship.
Best Picks: McGahee, Holmes, J. Jones
Worst Picks: Burress, late round safe picks
Possible Starting Lineup:
QB: Bulger, Leinart Grade: A
RB: Gore, McGahee, McAlister, Jones Grade: B/B+
WR: Harrison, Driver, Burress, Galloway, Holmes Grade: B/B+
TE: Crumpler Grade: B
K: Gould
DEF: Bears Grade: A
D: Peterson,
Vilma, Kampman, Sanders, Polamalu, Schobel
Possible Keepers:
Leinart, McGahee,
J. Jones, Russell,
Pick 5: John
1.05: Addai- Same as with Peitz, lots of people to choose from here. I don’t mind the pick, but it is a little riskier. I like Westbrook, Parker or Manning here as well. You can never go wrong with the Colts O, and hopefully he gets all of the carries.
2.04: Brady- Starting the second round QB run with my 3rd ranked QB. I like it. Lots of weapons this year and lots of production.
3.05: TO- Surprised you went with a Cowboy this high, but TO is another one who will produce if he is on the field. There is always some risk with him due to age and being a dumbass. I’m not sure if I have the stat right but I think he is the only WR to be averaging a TD for every game he has played over the last 4-5 years.
4.04: R. Johnson- Another guy I hate as a Steeler fan, but just about a lock for 1400 yards and 11TDs. Great pick in the 4th even if he doesn’t catch passes. I like the risk balance of your RBs.
5.05: TJ- I don’t feel like typing out his last name. I think he could be a top 10 WR with Johnson drawing all of the double coverage. Very good first 5 rounds, the only one I question is Addai, but with the safe Rudi pick you cover yourself a little.
6.04: Eli- Yeah I know he’s a Giant, but it was a little early for him and I don’t know if this is the year he breaks out as we have been saying that since he started in the league. I think you have to go Leinart here or grab a RB here. In hindsight, you did fine with RB later so I guess it worked out ok.
7.05/8.04: T. Jones/Jacobs- Love the Jones pick, he’ll get carries and he is a good pass catcher. I’m very surprised Jacobs fell this far, he has some risk as a RB4 you can’t ask for more upside. Getting back to back RBs allowed you to pass on them until round 20 and fill your team.
9/10/11: Shockey, R. Brown, Stallworth- Shockey is directly tied to how well Eli does but I think he is in for a good year. I think I like Brown better as a 4th WR rather than a 3rd but he is the #1 on the Eagles and should do well. I don’t like the Stallworth pick as I think he will be listed as “Q” every week making it a tough lineup decision.
Rest of Draft: First the bad, I don’t like your def players,
I think there are too many actual DL and I think you will be making some waiver
moves to replace them. Now the very good, the major problem I talked about in
Peitz’s draft was the bad management of safe/ high upside players. You took
some risks early but came back with
Best Picks: Rudi, Bruce, Jacobs
Worst Picks: Stallworth, Eli, DLs
Possible Starting Lineup:
QB: Brady, Eli Grade: B+
RB: Addai, Rudi, T. Jones, Jacobs Grade:B+, Depth A-
WR: TO, TJ, Brown, Stallworth,
TE: Shockey Grade: B+
K: Wilkins
DEF: GB Grade: C/C+
D: Taylor, Morrison, Hope, Bailey, Allen, Henderson
Possible Keepers:
Eli, Jacobs, Quinn
Pick 6: Tim
1.06: Peyton- I’m surprised he fell to you here, and with the RBs you ended up with, this was a great pick as I would have considered Westbrook and Parker here as well.
2.03: Westbrook- He’s huge in our format if he can stay healthy and there is no way he should have fallen to the second.
3.06: Holt- He is always a solid choice here even though the news on his knee doesn’t seem good. I would have liked Wayne or Johnson here a little more but it is a matter of preference.
4.03: Maroney- Another top RB fell into your lap. He appears to be healthy going into the season and the Patriots are going to score points. I love these first four rounds and you had arguably the best four rounds of anyone.
5.06: Gates- At the time I thought this was a great pick, but I’m not so sure it didn’t hurt the rest of the draft. As long as Gates scores like a WR2 you will be ok, but your starting RBs took a big hit by drafting him IMO.
6.03: Young- Lots of potential here with Young. Hopefully he can overcome the lack of WRs on his team. I like him a lot better in leagues with 4 point passing TDs. I think you should have went with Leinart here.
7.06: Lynch- Good pick here as he was one of the last RBs in that tier and rounds out an excellent group of RBs. Lynch should be very involved in the passing game as well.
8.03: Ward: Waiting five rounds to take another WR hurt you because it left you with Ward as WR2. That is not so bad on the surface but then you waited too long on WR3 and missed a whole group of players who could have helped your team. Better hope Gates pulls through.
9.06/10.03: NE/ Jackson- I don’t like the NE pick because I
think they are a good deal behind Bal/Chi and because you really needed to
address your receiving corps here. Either take a WR in the 9th and
NE in the 10th or I think I would have gone back to back WRs here. I
like
Rest of draft: I really like your defense outside of
Phillips. Good mix of solid production and big plays. Having Fletcher and
Pierce will make up for when Merriman and Taylor have off games. I like
Best Picks: Westbrook, Maroney
Worst Picks: NE Def, WR corps after Holt
Possible Lineup:
QB: Manning, Young Grade: A-
RB: Westbrook, Maroney, Lynch Grade: B+
WR: Holt, Ward, Jackson, Curtis Grade: C
TE: Gates Grade: A
K: Vinateri
DEF: NE Grade: B+
D: Fletcher, Pierce, Merriman, Thomas, Taylor, Phillips
Possible Keepers:
Maroney, Young, Lynch
Pick 7: Billy
1.07: Palmer- At the time I didn’t like this pick as I think Palmer is not worth nearly as much as Manning and there are three RBs I love still on the board (Westbrook, Parker, Bush). I don’t know if you were thinking that way and knew that you would get one in the second. I think my major problem is that you locked yourself into taking a RB in the second. If you took Parker in the 1st, you are in a better position to react to Nick’s picks.
2.02: Parker- The move in the first ended up working because of the QB run in the second and you nailed Parker who I am obviously a big fan of. Not much more to say here as I think he can end as a top 5 RB.
3.07: MJD- I was real interested in seeing where he went this year. I was pretty convinced that someone would jump on him early. I didn’t think he would last till the late third. I don’t think he will repeat his production but that is just a gut feeling, but at least he returns kicks which is big in our league. I think this ended up being a good pick.
4.02:
5.07: Boldin: A little surprised he fell this far. A good possession receiver, I like A. Johnson better this year, but this was not a bad pick.
6.02: Hasselbeck: Gotta have some players you like to root for. Like Romo with Nick, all these QBs are close in production and you might as well get the one you like.
7.07: Edwards- Seems like he is always on your team. I don’t know what to think of him this year. He is the main target, but his QB situation blows. Could be a huge pick, or you may be guessing whether or not to start him each week.
8.02: MBIII- Waiting five rounds for a RB cost you a little. If Barber can get the TDs like last year this is a good pick, but remember Jones is still the starter there. As I will mention, your late RB picks may have saved your draft.
9/10: Urlacher / Clayton- Urlacher will be a beast as usual. I really like Clayton this year, and he may be the second best WR4 in the league this season.
Rest of draft: I think your RB2-3 had a lot of risk so I
really like the
Best picks: Parker,
Worst Picks: Barber, McMichael, Edwards?
Possible Lineup:
QB: Palmer, Hasselbeck Grade: B+
RB: Parker, Jones-Drew, Barber,
WR: Wayne, Boldin, Edwards, Clayton Grade: B+
TE: McMichael Grade: C
K: Stover
DEF: SD Grade: B+
D: Urlacher, Hawk,
Possible Keepers:
Jones-Drew, Barber, Hasselbeck
Pick 8: Nick
1.08: Drew Brees- You are in a tough spot at the turn because even though I don’t think Brees is worth a first round pick, you almost have to take a QB because you don’t know what will come back to you.
2.01: Bush- I love Bush in our format and you made a good play for him in the second so you have a keeper option with him. Also could have gone with Westbrook.
3.08:
4.01: Roy Williams- Roy will be good this year but you needed another RB and I wouldn’t have passed on Maroney or Rudi here. I think you came in with too much of a set plan to get the WRs, as there was still a ton of RB talent on the board here.
5.08: A. Johnson- Tons of RBs went off the board in the 15 picks between yours so I would have loved this pick if he wasn’t your third WR in a row. I’m torn on this pick because you didn’t reach for a RB here, but you needed one. I think with Schaub at QB Johnson is in for a very big year. Even if he doesn’t improve on his TD totals, he should see more balls then Chim’s sister’s chin.
6.01: Romo: One of the best QBs left and it started a run which allowed other talent to fall.
7.08: Moss- By far the best WR4 in the league. I’m glad that after this pick you ignored WR for a while to fill the rest of your team. I think you should have gone RB/RB here.
8.01 Caddy: I think Caddy will do better than most of the RBs taken around him, that said he is still an RB3 and I wouldn’t want to have to rely on him every week to get me 15-20 points just to keep up with other teams RB3. I hope your WR corps can make up that difference.
9.08:
Rest of Draft:
You got good value for Lewis and White, hopefully one of
them will step up. I like your LBs, but not a big fan of the DBs outside of
Best Picks: Caddy, A. Johnson
Worst Picks: R. Williams,
Possible Lineup
QB: Brees, Romo Grade: B+
RB: Bush, Caddy, Lewis, White Grade: D
WR: CJ, R. Williams, A. Johnson, S. Moss Grade: A
TE: Cooley, Heap Grade: B+ Depth: A
K: Rackers
DEF:
D: Bulluck, Wilson, June, Brooking, Ware, Harris, Scott
Possible Keepers:
Bush, Caddy, Romo, White
Now that I have looked at everyone else’s draft, I will look at mine and give some ideas of what I was thinking and picks I regret. I had two main goals in this draft: don’t try to force picks, especially early on. Take the best value for the first few rounds, then fill in. I have to wait a long time between picks and if I miss a run, I shouldn’t take a lesser player at that position. Second, try to guess who Steve was going to take. This is very important for two reasons. First, if I am targeting two players, I need to guess which one he likes less to hope I can get them both. Second, we have the #1 and 2 RBs, with him holding the advantage so I need to make my picks to try to beat him at the other positions besides RB1.
Pick 2: Keith
1.02: S. Jackson- Not really much to say here, considered Manning for a nano-second.
2.07: McNabb- This was a pick I wasn’t sure about at the time, and after hearing Steve say he wouldn’t have taken him, I know I made the wrong choice. At the time I liked the pick because I had McNabb ranked 6th and if healthy he is huge. The problem was that I was staring at Travis Henry who I knew Steve would take. If I didn’t get burned last year with my late QBs, I would have taken Henry, but I wanted a stud QB. My later round RB picks make me feel better about this though.
3.02: Steve Smith- I almost reached for an RB because I was
pissed about Henry, but I knew there would be a WR run in the 3rd
and 4th so I knew I could get an advantage by taking my top ranked
WR here. I ended up being right about the WR run.
4.07: Ronnie Brown- I have always liked him, and he was the highest RB on my
board, and I needed a consistent RB2 because I could tell I was going to take
some risky players at RB3.
5.02: Larry Fitz- I couldn’t believe he was still on the board here. I had him as my 7th ranked WR so this pick gave me 1 QB, 2RB, and 2WR which allowed me a lot of flexibility in the coming rounds.
6.07: Portis- I was so pissed that SteveO took Big Ben right before me. I had to change my game plan here. I saw everyone else had 2 QBs, and Favre was my next ranked QB and I knew no one would take him for a while. This let me take a risk in Portis, but when healthy he is a top 10 RB, and I knew to win I had to take a risk. Other than McNabb, my first 5 picks were very safe so I knew I could take a risk.
7.02: Peterson- I felt another RB run coming and I really wanted him. I know I reached but I can keep him for a 6th next year and I really think he will be the starter the second half of the year. I figured that between him and Portis that I could get an RB3 who got RB1 points.
8/9: McGee/ Ryans- Every time I thought about this draft, I knew I wanted to start the def player run. I guess I did it a round early but it could have been worse. I also knew I wanted to do it when I had almost back to back picks so I would have a third of my starting defense quick and wouldn’t lose out on the top players. McGee is pretty much the only DB who is starting and will return kicks which is why I knew I wanted him.
10.07: Ahman Green- I didn’t plan on taking him here, but there were no WRs I really liked, and he gives me insurance against Portis and Peterson. I think he is in for a better year than most predict.
11.02: Chambers- I know taking the def players early cost me at WR3. I don’t like him but he is the top WR for his team and that’s about all I can ask for in the 11th.
12/13: V. Davis/Cotchery- I love these two picks. Cotchery
will probably outscore Chambers so I am very happy to get him as WR4 and it
makes my whole WR corps look better. I think
14/15: Favre/ A. Smith- When I passed on a QB in the 6th, my new plan was to take back to back QBs so that I would have a top backup. Favre will throw a ton and hopefully most of them aren’t caught by the other team. I had Losman and Smith ranked close, so Steve made my decision for me. With a little luck, I will be getting double points with the Smith to Davis TD passes.
Rest of draft: I don’t know why Ray Lewis fell so far but I’m glad to have the ex-con on my team. With my weaker WR3/4 I was going to take two more high upside guys, I got Hackett who I like this year, but then I took Winslow because he was falling way too far. I now have more flex options and I am confident that Winslow will outscore most of the WRs taken around him. I took some high risk rookie LBs at then end, but they both have talent and are in a situation to put up elite numbers. If I’m wrong I only lost a late round pick. The Jones and Turner picks were strictly for possible keepers next year. It might be a pain to keep them during bye weeks but it should be worth it.
Best Picks: Portis, Fitzgerald, Green
Worst Picks: McNabb, McGee, Ryans
Possible Lineup:
QB: McNabb, Favre, Smith
RB: Jackson, Brown, Portis, Peterson, Green
WR: Smith, Fitz, Chambers, Cotchery, Hackett
TE: Davis, Winslow
K:
DEF:
D: Ryans, McGee, Lewis, Williams, Poz, Willis
Possible Keepers:
Smith, Portis, Peterson, Jones, Turner